Why Your Best Employee Might Be Thinking About Leaving This Quarter

Good people rarely leave suddenly, they leave quietly first. 

This is the part many managers miss. The resignation email feels like it comes out of nowhere, but in reality the decision was made weeks or even months earlier. By the time someone hands in their notice, they have already detached emotionally, tested the job market and made peace with going. 

The months after Christmas and bonus season are one of the highest risk periods for employee turnover. People reflect, compare and reassess. They look at how the last year felt, not just how it paid. If something has been bothering them for a while this is often when it turns into action. 

If you assume your best people are fine because they are capable, reliable and not complaining, you may already be too late. 

Why strong performers go quiet before they go 

High performers rarely cause problems. They get on with the job, take pride in their work and tend to avoid drama. That also means they are less likely to make noise when something is not right. 

Instead of saying they are unhappy, they start pulling back. Not in a dramatic way but in ways that are easy to explain away if you are busy. 

You might notice they stop speaking up in meetings. They still attend but the energy is gone. They do what is asked but no longer challenge ideas or suggest improvements. They are still performing but the spark has faded. 

You may see changes in behaviour around development. Someone who used to ask about progression or new projects suddenly stops showing interest. Training opportunities are declined or met with indifference rather than enthusiasm. 

Another common sign is emotional distance. Conversations become more transactional. They are polite but guarded. They share less about how they are feeling and more about what needs to be done. This is often self protection rather than attitude. 

None of these things scream resignation on their own. Together they tell a very different story. 

The real damage of avoiding honest conversations 

Many managers sense when something is off but choose not to address it. Sometimes it feels risky. Sometimes it feels awkward. Sometimes it feels easier to wait and see. 

The problem is that silence fills the gap. When employees do not get honest conversations, they create their own answers. They assume they are not valued, or nothing will change, so looking elsewhere is the safest option. 

Avoiding a conversation does not keep the peace, it quietly breaks trust. 

The best employees want clarity even when the message is uncomfortable. They would rather have an honest conversation about workload, recognition or progression than a polite silence that goes nowhere. 

When those conversations do not happen, people disengage first and then they leave. 

Why this quarter matters  

The period after bonuses are paid is a tipping point. For some employees, the bonus confirms their value. For others, it highlights how little has changed despite their effort. 

This is also when people start getting approached by recruiters. LinkedIn activity picks up. Opportunities look tempting because the frustration is already there. 

If someone has been carrying the business through a busy year without enough support, feedback or appreciation, this is when resentment tends to surface. 

Retention is rarely about one thing. It is about the build up of small moments where someone felt unheard, overlooked or taken for granted. 

What good managers do differently 

Managers who manage to keep their best people rarely wait for problems to land on their desk. They create space for real conversations early on, long before disengagement quietly turns into an exit plan, because they understand that by the time someone is openly unhappy, the decision to leave is often already forming. 

That usually means asking better questions, rather than just focusing on how someone is performing. It is about checking in on how the role actually feels day to day, what parts of the job are starting to drain energy rather than motivate it and what would make work feel more manageable or more meaningful right now. 

It also means really listening to the answers without immediately defending the business or explaining why something cannot change. Feeling heard and being taken seriously is often the first thing that makes someone pause before they start looking elsewhere, especially when they have been carrying frustrations quietly for a while. 

Most importantly it means doing something with what you hear. Even small changes show that the conversation mattered and that trust works both ways, whereas silence after a difficult conversation sends a very clear message that nothing is likely to change. 

The cost of getting this wrong 

Losing a strong employee is not just about recruitment costs. It is about lost knowledge, lost momentum and the message it sends to the rest of the team. 

When good people leave others start to question their own future. Retention issues rarely stay isolated for long. 

The frustrating part is that many of these exits were preventable with earlier action and better conversations. 

If this feels uncomfortably familiar 

If you are reading this and thinking of someone specific you are probably right to trust that instinct. 

Retention is not about grand gestures. It is about noticing changes early and having the confidence to talk about them properly. 

Our Employee Engagement & Retention Guide walks you through how to spot disengagement early, how to structure meaningful conversations and how to keep your best people committed to your business, not just employed by it. 

Access our Employee Engagement & Retention Guide inside Dakota Blue Academy and get practical tools to keep your best people before they decide to leave quietly.